Importance of the 2023 Virginia Elections: A National to State to Local Perspective

Tuesday, November 7 is Election Day for all of Virginia state’s 140 legislative seats.  The 2023 Virginia state elections will be a harbinger for the 2024 national elections for President and control over the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate.  Virginia’s legislature echoes the razor thin margins in the US Congress.  It is also the first state to have elections after 2020 Census reapportionment. 

Uniquely, control over the state legislature will have an impact on the one term limited ambitions of Governor Glenn Younkin for the White House or Senate.   

In 2021, Virginia shifted from blue to pink, with Republicans winning the Governorship and other statewide races as well the majority in the State Assembly.  Democrats retained control of the State Senate. 

This year, a Republican pickup of just three seats in the Senate, if they also keep the majority in the Assembly, would give Republicans a trifecta control over state government.   But Democrats can take back the General Assembly by winning four additional seats. Because of redistricting all the state legislators will be running in new districts. 

While some analysts say that only a few seats are true tossups, we should never assume “safe” districts which could result in unpleasant surprises.  New York Democrats discovered this when they lost 5 Congressional seats in 2022, and cost Democrats control of the House of Representatives.  This is particularly salient after redistricting.  That’s why we need to pay attention to every district, and reach out to every voter.

Rural Votes Matter

The rural vote and protecting abortion rights are two issues that will have an outsized impact.  Following the repeal of Roe vs. Wade with the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision in 2022, ending federal protection for reproductive rights, abortion rights have become a state government red-letter issue.  Many states imposed severe restrictions on abortion contrary to public opinion and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin has promised to introduce restrictions in Virginia. Notably, however, conservative red states such as Kansas and Ohio introduced statewide referendums supporting abortion rights by significant margins, blocking state legislative actions.  This was not just an urban phenomenon.  An assessment of the vote in Kansas showed significant rural support and erosion from the margins of the 2020 Trump vote.  Winning the rural vote contributed to a statewide large victory margin.

Virginia is the last southern state to have a legislative body with a Democratic majority. The importance of the rural vote and not conceding any area is important.  There is a cumulative up ballot effect of running candidates.  Local Virginia rural advocates have pointed out the importance of a “losing less” strategy of building up the party support.  Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at the University of Mary Washington, has pointed out that having Democratic candidates run in districts where they are unlikely to win can still help the party by creating an environment where they lose by less. “If Democrats lose by 20 points instead of 30 points, that can really help statewide Democratic candidates.”  

As an example, Farnsworth cited the 2022 reelection of Democrat Abigail Spanberger, the incumbent in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, who defeated the Republican nominee Yesli Vega by 52.21% to 47.56%. The Spanberger example is an important lesson for the state legislative races.  Many of pivotal seats in the Virginia suburbs still retain significant rural areas.  This makes the rural vote as important district wide as state-wide.  

What transpires in 2023 can also be applied to 2024.  Remind anyone you know in Virginia that Tuesday, November 7 is Election Day.  And no matter where they live, it’s important to turn out and turn the tide.